Iowa and Fox News’ Ratings
So let’s start with Iowa and the tie (for all purposes) of Romney and Santorum with Paul in 3rd.
This should knock Perry and Bachmann out of the race soon as well as Huntsman. That brings the race down to Romney, Santorum, Paul and Gingrich.
Romney is likely going to win New Hampshire as well, since that is his backyard. So everyone else is battling for a 2nd place.
In the end, it’s not hard to read between the lines and say that Romney is likely to win because he has raised the most money, but clearly nothing is settled yet.
The real question is in the South when South Carolina and Florida vote. If Santorum and\or Gingrich do well there, then it could be a real dog fight. Paul will fade away at some point in this. He has some good talking points, but he’s not going to appeal to the country as a whole. Let’s put him aside for now and look at Santorum\Gingrich.
Santorum got most of his votes from the Christian Right as they try to find someone who can push ahead of Romney. Most candidates in the race are OK with the Christian Right but not Romney. What is really going to shape this race is when candidates drop out, will they move to Romney? If so, Romney is a lock. If not, then Santorum\Gingrich could pull this rabbit out of a hat.
It’s clear, that if Romney wins this that someone like Santorum (Far Right Christian from a big state) could be his VP like Sarah Palin was last time to try to bring the Christians behind him.
I found this link the other day about how more people now watch Jon Stewart than Fox News (looking at the daily averages).
Now this is kind of an apple to oranges comparison, since Jon Stewart is not really a news channel. On the other hand, his show bread and butter is showing the misreporting from Fox News and other channels, but Fox is the biggest target (and with good reason). There is only one thing that makes the fact that Jon has a bigger audience news worthy:
Fox’s audience is down 8%, while Jon’s numbers are up 7%
If Fox was going up in numbers, no one would care, but with Fox losing audience share the last thing it wants is someone with a bigger TV show talking about why you shouldn’t watch Fox.